Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/0136Z from Region 2077 (S05E03). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jun,
06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
04/0654Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0508Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1915Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 105
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 006/005-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/15/30