Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jun,
06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
689 km/s at 04/0313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 31835 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (06 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 110
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/005-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/25/40