Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to event observed at 04/1333Z from Region 3050 (N18E30). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 04/1714Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 04/0414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 104
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 106/106/110
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 010/010-017/025-012/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/35
Minor Storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/65/50