Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 04/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 145 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 070
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10