Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 04/0133Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1917Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 068
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 013/018-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/20