Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 04/0329Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3066 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 068
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15