Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 03/2135Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 072
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 072/071/071
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10