Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/0008Z from Region 2378 (S16E44). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 605 km/s at 04/2023Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 04/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -22 nT at 04/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4503 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jul), unsettled to active levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Jul 117

Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 115/120/120

90 Day Mean        04 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  014/022

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  020/030-014/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/30/25

Minor Storm           25/15/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/15/15

Minor Storm           25/30/30

Major-severe storm    55/50/40