Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
04/1439Z from Region 2108 (S08E28). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
04/0727Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0803Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0722Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 188
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 195/195/190
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 006/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05