Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/0008Z from Region 1785 (S12E36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
04/1948Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1108Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6615 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 138
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 016/020-012/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/20