Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (07 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 03/2356Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 866 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 086
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20