Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 04/1429Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2124Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 072
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10