Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 04/1550Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 070
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 070/070/069
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  006/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20