Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 04/1143Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 04/0444Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 072
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 072/071/071
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  010/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  018/025-013/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/40