Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/1536Z from Region 2253 (S07W04). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at 03/2245Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1336Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 150
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 150/155/160
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 013/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 012/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
