Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
04/1946Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06
Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at
04/0054Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2222Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 879 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07
Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 215
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 215/220/220
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05