Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 04/0505Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 074
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-007/008-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/40