Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 04/0459Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22414 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 074
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  007/010-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/35