Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 04/1822Z from Region 2494 (S12E09). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 514 km/s at 04/1610Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1015Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (05 Feb, 07 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (06 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 123
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 007/006-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/20