Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 4, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0215Z from Region 2277 (N08W18). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 582 km/s at 03/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7431 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Feb 145

Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 145/145/150

90 Day Mean        04 Feb 153

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  012/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  007/010-007/010-007/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    25/25/25

 

SpaceRef staff editor.