Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0215Z from Region 2277 (N08W18). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 582 km/s at 03/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7431 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 145
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb