Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/0400Z from Region 1967 (S12W24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06
Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
04/2055Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0203Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 188
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 185/180/180
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05