Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 04/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 070
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10