Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 04/2020Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/1652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 068
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  026/034-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           35/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/55/35