Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/1755Z from Region 2615 (S07W20). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 307 km/s at 03/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6344 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet levels on day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 082
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/20