Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 04/1710Z from Region 2462 (N09E57). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 411 km/s at 03/2340Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1474 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 098
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-014/018-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/55/55