Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0810Z from Region 2222 (S19W37). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 568 km/s at 04/1337Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2043Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 158
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
