Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 779 km/s at 04/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 946 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 073
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10