Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 04/0807Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0746Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 067
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 018/025-020/025-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/35