Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 03/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Aug, 06 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 070
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  009/010-010/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/30