Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 4, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (05 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 04/1026Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4929 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 076
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 024/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 013/015-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/25

SpaceRef staff editor.