Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0053Z from Region 2126 (S09, L=327). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug,
07 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 04/2018Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1756Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/1807Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (06 Aug, 07
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 139
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/15