Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 04/1017Z from Region 2984 (N12W97). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 04/0413Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/2240Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 03/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3916 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (07 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 128
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 008/008-014/020-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/35
Minor Storm 05/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/65/65