Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0238Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 448 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 070
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 006/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10