Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 04/1657Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/1321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 479 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 070
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  011/012-007/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30