Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 03/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0929Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1796 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Apr, 06 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 069
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  008/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/15