Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 04/0322Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2862 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 083
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 011/014-010/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/35/40