Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
April 4, 2015
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/1154Z from Region 2318 (N09E57). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 607 km/s at 04/0241Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

Class M    15/15/15

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Apr 122

Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 125/125/130

90 Day Mean        04 Apr 131

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  014/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  011/013

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  007/010-007/008-007/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/10/10

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    25/20/20

 

SpaceRef staff editor.