Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/1348Z from Region 2027 (N12E17). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr,
07 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at
04/0759Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0258Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/0229Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (07
Apr).

III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 157
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 018/020-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/05
Minor Storm 25/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 55/20/05