Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Nov) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (02 Nov) and expected to be very low on day three (03 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 31/0535Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7325 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 077
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 078/075/072
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/25