Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 31, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1752Z from Region 2443 (N07E43). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at 31/0905Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/2048Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (02 Nov) and active to major storm levels on day three (03 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 119
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/008-036/065-033/050

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/35/40
Major-severe storm 01/40/30
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/01/05
Minor Storm 30/10/10
Major-severe storm 20/90/85

SpaceRef staff editor.