Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to

31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at

31/0101Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Nov) and likely to

be low on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,

as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 531 km/s at

31/1928Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1229Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV

at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1475 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov,

02 Nov, 03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

Class M    10/05/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           31 Oct 121

Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 120/115/110

90 Day Mean        31 Oct 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  009/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    35/35/35