Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1351Z from Region 1877 (S13W95). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov,
03 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 31/1631Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1840Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
30/2115Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 143
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10