Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 31/0029Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 071
Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 31 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05