Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 30/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4446 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Jun, 02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 069
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 071/072/072
90 Day Mean        31 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  006/006-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/20