Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
May 31, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on
31 May 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 31/2100Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 31/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
31/1705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 579 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Jun, 02
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (
03 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 077
Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 31 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 018/025-019/025-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/55/45

SpaceRef staff editor.