Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
May 31, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at 31/0021Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1502Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1407Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

 

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           31 May 094

Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 095/100/105

90 Day Mean        31 May 125

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.