Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 31/1835Z from Region 2975 (N13W52). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 31/1148Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 31/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 31/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Apr). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (01 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 65/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 149
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/130
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 024/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 025/032-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/45
Minor Storm 35/05/20
Major-severe storm 25/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/35
Major-severe storm 70/30/55
