Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 30/2110Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/0755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0611Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 074
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 075/070/070
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/20