Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 31/1704Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached apeak level of 806 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 070
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  007/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/30