Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 31/0016Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9268 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 069
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10